Optics Stocks Drop on Anthropic News, WSJ Report: Lumentum Down 10%, Corning Down 8%, AXT Down 12%

Lumentum, Corning and AXT fell sharply despite intact operating catalysts, as Anthropic revenue expectations, ballooning AI infrastructure commitments and a 5.31% 30-year Treasury yield drove rotation from semiconductors into defensive sectors.
Optics stocks sold off Tuesday as investors reduced exposure to AI hardware names. Lumentum (NASDAQ:LITE) fell 10.1% near $877, Corning (NYSE:GLW) declined 8.2%, and AXT (NASDAQ:AXTI) dropped 12.5% near $84. The catalyst was macro rather than optics-specific. Anthropic told investors that annualized revenue reached $65 billion at the end of July, below Silicon Valley whisper figures. On the All In Podcast, Gavin Baker said he had heard Anthropic’s annual recurring revenue exceeded $80 billion. Reuters reported Anthropic estimates 2028 revenue of $190 billion to $200 billion, while Baker and David Sacks expected next year-end ARR of $400 billion to $500 billion. OpenAI’s reported ARR of about $40 billion also disappointed relative to its spending plans. The Wall Street Journal reported that nine major technology companies had approximately $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet commitments, mostly AI-related, based on securities-filing footnotes. Those obligations are growing faster than traditional capital expenditure, which totaled about $600 billion over the past year and was roughly triple their leases and long-term borrowings. That spending supports the optics supply chain, including seven previously profiled non-chip suppliers. The 30-year Treasury reached 5.31% Monday, a fresh multiyear high weighing on long-duration growth stocks. Positioning amplified the decline. Nothing changed in the indium phosphide market after AXT led Monday’s rally on reported shortages and price increases, pulling Coherent and Lumentum higher. Lumentum remains up 19% in a week and 163% year to date; AXT is up 109% in a month and 487% year to date; Corning is up 98% year to date. Fabrinet (NYSE:FN) fell about 20% despite a clear beat. It reported record fourth-quarter revenue of $1.316 billion, up 45% year over year, non-GAAP EPS of $4.10 versus $2.65, fiscal 2026 revenue up 36% to $4.64 billion, and fiscal first-quarter 2027 guidance of $1.375 billion to $1.425 billion. Fundamentals remain intact. Lumentum guided fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue to $1.225 billion to $1.275 billion, with its CEO saying the target model was being reached more than a quarter early. Corning raised its Springboard Plan to $20 billion annualized by year-end 2026 and $40 billion by year-end 2030. AXT reported second-quarter revenue of $47.59 million, up 165% year over year. Investors should watch the rotation: semiconductors are broadly lower while software, Healthcare, Industrials, Consumer Defense, Energy and Financials attract defensive flows. Lower yields could stabilize optics; higher yields could extend profit-taking.
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