Nov 12
Zcash tumbles as hawkish Fed repricing weighs on the crypto market; focus remains on the Fed and US-Iran negotiations
<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">Zcash has sold off
sharply on Tuesday following the hawkish repricing triggered by <a href="https://investinglive.com/central-banks/fed-s-waller-says-a-half-point-rate-hike-in-december-may-be-needed-if-core-cpi-comes-in-hot/" rel="follow" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline;">Fed governor Waller’s remarks</a> and the <a href="https://investinglive.com/news/us-october-core-cpi-vs-0-2-expected/" rel="follow" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline;">hot US CPI</a> that weighed on the crypto market.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">As a reminder,
Fed’s Waller not only said he would support a rate hike in December regardless
of the inflation data but also raised the possibility of a larger 50 bps move
if October’s inflation data came in hotter than expected.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">Sure enough, the US
CPI data came in above expectations, increasing the probability of a 50 bps
hike. Following the release, Fed's Hammack also opened the door for a larger
rate increase. Traders are currently pricing in just a 12% probability of a 50
bps hike, but those odds could increase if more Fed officials endorse such a
move or refrain from pushing back against the possibility.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">On the US-Iran
front, the negotiations are still in a stalemate. The WSJ reported yesterday that
US Vice President Vance is considering holding face-to-face talks with a senior
Iranian security official in an attempt to bring the conflict to an end.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">However, separate
reports suggested that senior Iranian officials believe the US is preparing
either further military strikes or tighter economic pressure. There is still
significant mistrust between the two sides, reinforcing the view that a
diplomatic breakthrough may not be as close as markets had initially expected.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">Looking ahead,
Zcash is likely to remain under pressure amid the negative macro backdrop, with
hawkish Fed expectations and geopolitical uncertainty limiting upside momentum.
A more dovish Fedspeak or a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations, on the other
hand, could improve risk sentiment and trigger a relief rally in the crypto
market.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: 104%; font-size: 15px;">ZCASH TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">On the
daily chart, we can see that <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ZECUSD/" rel="follow" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline;">Zcash</a>broke below the key 1,031
level recently, opening the door for a move into the major upward trendline around
the 800 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to step in,
with a defined risk blow the trendline, to position for a rally into the 2,000
level, with the 1,031 level as the first target. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets
into the 500 level next.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: 104%; font-size: 15px;">ZCASH TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; margin: 7px 0; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px;">On the 4
hour chart, we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. If we
get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline, with a
defined risk above it, to keep targeting the major upward trendline. The
buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally
into the 1,380 resistance next.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: 104%; font-size: 15px;">ZCASH TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME</p><p></p><p>On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here as the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup
around the trendline, while the buyers will need a breakout to pile in for a
rally into the 1,380 resistance. The red lines define the <a href="https://investinglive.com/Education/trading-tip-know-the-average-daily-range-adr-20220207/" rel="follow" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline;">average daily range</a> for today.</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: 104%; font-size: 15px;">UPCOMING CATALYSTS</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0 0 11px; font-family: Aptos, sans-serif; line-height: 103%; font-size: 15px;"><a href="https://investinglive.com/EconomicCalendar" rel="follow" style="color: rgba(70, 120, 134, 1); text-decoration: underline;">Today</a> we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the
week with the US PPI data. </p>
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.