Europe’s fighter jet plans are in disarray. What happens next?
The collapse of France and Germany’s future combat air system leaves Europe weighing multiple costly fighter programmes, while Germany considers joining the UK, Italy and Japan’s GCAP amid questions over orders, funding, technology and industrial workshare.
Europe’s defence ambitions are colliding with industrial rivalry and weak economics. Mario Draghi argued that European countries should share defence costs and technology rather than build separate aircraft, tanks and ships. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron cancelled the joint future combat air system in June after negotiations dating to 2018. Dassault Aviation and Germany-headquartered Airbus Defence and Space disputed leadership; France also wanted a smaller, carrier-capable aircraft, while Germany has no aircraft carriers. The breakdown deepened when Safran ended its joint fighter-engine effort with MTU Aero Engines. France appears ready to proceed alone. Dassault Chief Executive Éric Trappier said in July that a next-generation combat aircraft could be developed solely in France or with partners, with a demonstrator flying as early as 2031. France has 228 Rafale aircraft in service, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. A “Rafale plus” could add radar, weapons, digital systems and an upgraded engine, although critics question whether it could match sixth-generation stealth. The Rafale upgrade planned for the early 2030s will operate with stealth drones. Germany could seek secondary status in Tempest, developed through the Global Combat Air Programme by the UK, Italy and Japan. Canada joined GCAP at July’s Farnborough airshow as an observer; Saudi Arabia is also seeking entry. Observer status may support purchases but does not provide core-partner manufacturing jobs. The GCAP partners created Edgewing to build Tempest. Chief Executive Marco Zoff said early workshare disputes were intended to prevent later conflict and support development by 2035. Leonardo Chief Executive Lorenzo Mariani called Germany a strong potential financial partner but warned it could increase delays. Rolls-Royce Chief Executive Tufan Erginbilgiç said German participation should not harm GCAP. Airbus Defence and Space Chief Executive Michael Schoellhorn said involvement was being explored. Programmes generally need hundreds of aircraft; about 600 is a useful benchmark. Europe may struggle to support even two, let alone three. The industry still expects crewed fighters in 2035, supported by AI, stealth and “loyal wingmen” such as BAE Systems’s Brontanax. The UK’s defence-spending debate continues amid uncertainty over reaching 3% of GDP. Fragmentation could repeat the Rafale-Eurofighter Typhoon split and weaken economies of scale and export competitiveness.