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Advanced Valuation

Full analysis | Business model · Statements · Shares · Competitors · Analysts · Risks

Capital One Financial CorporationCOF
Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services
Price
$199.83
Market Cap
$122.6B
TTM Revenue
$78.6B
TTM Net Income
$10.5B
TTM FCF
$32.2B
P/E
11.7
🏦
Recommended Analysis ModelConfidence: High

Bank / Financial Institution

Banks have a different financial structure. FCF and EV do not apply. Book multiple and ROE are the foundation.

Preferred Models
P/Book Value
ROE Model
Dividend Capacity
Not Suitable
FCF Model
EV/EBITDA
Standard DCF

FCF and EV are not suitable tools for banks. Use book multiple, ROE and dividend capacity.

Expensive🏦 Bank / Financial Institution
Current Price$199.83
Model Fair Value$171.48
Entry Price (80%)$137.18
Upside to Fair Value-14.2%
Annual Return to Target1.5%
Margin of Safety-16.5%
Implied Growth—
Active Model🏦 Book Value + ROE

1. Choose Valuation Model

Valuation Model
Recommended:🏦Book Value + ROE
Selected:🏦Book Value + ROE
Mode:Auto

The model you chose is a weaker fit for this company type

FCF and EV are not suitable tools for banks. Use book multiple, ROE and dividend capacity.

2. Valuation Results

Base Data

Current Price
$199.83
Shares (M)
613
TTM Revenue
$78.61B
TTM Net Income
$10.52B
TTM FCF
$32.20B
Net Debt
-$11.37B
Market Cap
$122.59B
Current P/E
11.7
Current P/FCF
3.8
Source: FMP financial statements + FMP cash flow statements + FMP balance sheet + income statements + StockAnalysis complete statements · TTM based on 4 quarters · 20 / 10 / 2026

Assumptions

Years Forward5 years
Revenue Growth (CAGR)28.4%
Net Margin13.4%
FCF Margin40.0%
Exit P/E Multiple12x
Exit P/FCF Multiple8x
Annual Share Count Change0.0%
Required Annual Return10.0%

Results

🏦 Book Value + ROE

Expensive
Future Revenue
ⓘ$274.28B
Future Net Income
$36.70B
Future FCF
$109.71B
Future EPS
ⓘ$59.83
Target Price in 5 years — Book Value + ROE
$214.95
Current P/B 0.9x
0.9x
Estimated current fair value per share (Book Value + ROE)
$171.48

Current estimated fair value per share based on report data and the active model's formula: Current book value per share × P/B multiple derived from ROE

Annual Return
1.5%
Upside
-14.2%
Margin of Safety
-16.5%

Valuation Drivers — What Moves the Needle Most?

0%25%50%75%100%Required ReturnRevenueGrowthExit P/ENet MarginFCF MarginShare CountChange

Impact percentage of a 10% change in each parameter on the fair value

3. Scenarios

Conservative

Expensive
Revenue Growth
8.0%
Net Margin
18.0%
Current P/B 0.9x
0.9x
Fair Value Today
$171.48
Annual Return
1.5%

Base

Expensive
Revenue Growth
15.0%
Net Margin
22.0%
Current P/B 0.9x
0.9x
Fair Value Today
$171.48
Annual Return
1.5%

Optimistic

Expensive
Revenue Growth
25.0%
Net Margin
28.0%
Current P/B 0.9x
0.9x
Fair Value Today
$171.48
Annual Return
1.5%

Probability-Weighted Fair Value

Conservative30%
Base50%
Optimistic20%
Weighted Fair Value
$171.48
Weighted Upside
-14.2%
Current Price
$199.83

4. Sensitivity Table — Fair Value Today ($)

Sensitivity Table

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6. Desired Entry Price

Desired Entry Price

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7. Assumption Reasonableness Check

Assumption Risk ScoreMedium Risk — 30/100
Revenue Growth: 28.4%Aggressive

Tech sector: ~10-25% | S&P500: ~5-10%

Net Margin: 13.4%OK

Current: 13.4% | S&P500 avg: ~12-15%

Exit P/E Multiple: 12xOK

Current P/E: 11.7x | Historical avg: ~15-25x

FCF Margin: 40.0%Aggressive

Current: 41.0%

8. Save Scenario

The calculator results should not be construed as personal investment advice. All calculations are estimates only. The investor is responsible for reviewing the data.