SoFi's 2027 Outlook Raises the Bar for a Lending-Led Rally

SoFi's third-quarter report gave investors something more durable than a one-week rebound: a 2027 profit target that assumes growth can continue while the company remains heavily exposed to lending. The shares rose 15% in the week through November 2 while the Nasdaq 100 fell 4%, according to TIKR, but the operating numbers matter more than the relative move.

Adjusted net revenue increased 44% from a year earlier to $1.371 billion, while adjusted EBITDA rose 70% to $469.8 million. That produced a 34% adjusted EBITDA margin. On a reported basis, SoFi earned $241.0 million, or $0.18 per diluted share, compared with $139.4 million and $0.11 a year earlier. The distinction matters because management's headline outlook uses adjusted revenue and adjusted EBITDA alongside reported net income and earnings per share.

Growth was broad enough to support the higher targets. SoFi ended September with 17.1 million members, up 35%, and 26.7 million products, up 44%. Existing members opened 51% of new products, evidence that the company is getting more use from customer relationships rather than relying only on new accounts. Fee-based revenue reached $570.6 million, or 42% of total revenue, giving SoFi a larger stream outside net interest income.

Management now expects 2026 adjusted net revenue of about $5.04 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1.66 billion, reported net income of $840 million and earnings of $0.61 per share. Its initial 2027 outlook calls for $6.4 billion of adjusted net revenue, $2.24 billion of adjusted EBITDA, $1.28 billion of net income and $0.90 per share. The 2027 plan implies about 27% adjusted revenue growth and a 20% net income margin.

The main risk is that SoFi is still a lender first. Lending generated $807.4 million of adjusted net revenue in the quarter, about 59% of the consolidated adjusted total by BTI's calculation. Record loan originations of $16.9 billion included $12.6 billion of personal loans. The annualized personal-loan charge-off rate declined to 2.26%, but SoFi said that figure includes asset sales, new originations and delinquency sales. Excluding late-stage delinquent loan sales, management estimated an all-in rate of about 3.4%. That adjusted comparison is a better warning against treating the headline credit metric as a complete measure of underlying risk.

Funding has improved at the same time. Deposits represented 90% of average liabilities, and SoFi said their average rate was 145 basis points below warehouse funding, equivalent to about $745 million of annualized interest savings. Net interest margin increased 16 basis points from the second quarter to 6.14%, showing that the deposit base can offset some rate pressure.

The rally is therefore supported by real growth, stronger funding and a more profitable customer base. It is not proof that the mid-October share-price low will hold. The next test is whether SoFi can deliver the 2027 margin plan without weaker credit, costly balance-sheet growth or renewed dependence on capital markets.