Prediction: Taiwan Semiconductor's Market Value Passes $3 Trillion Before 2029

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM), or TSMC, is valued at about $2.2 trillion, with shares near $427. Surpassing $3 trillion before the end of 2028 would require a share price of approximately $580—about 21% above the 52-week high of $479. The increase represents roughly 35%, or about 14% compounded annually. If TSMC’s price-to-earnings multiple remains unchanged, comparable earnings growth could achieve the target. Current momentum is stronger. Second-quarter revenue rose 36% year over year to NT$1.27 trillion ($40.2 billion), while net income surged 77%. Gross margin expanded to 67.7% from 58.6%. July revenue increased about 45%, taking first-seven-month 2026 growth to 37%. Management forecasts third-quarter revenue of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion, versus $33.1 billion a year earlier. The midpoint implies about 37% growth. TSMC also raised its full-year revenue-growth outlook to slightly above 40% in U.S. dollar terms. Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang cited demand for leading-edge technologies and the steep ramp-up of 2-nanometer production. 2026 capital spending is expected at $60 billion to $64 billion. TSMC separately announced an additional $100 billion investment in Arizona for leading-edge fabs and advanced-packaging plants. Risk is concentrated exposure: high-performance computing represented 66% of second-quarter revenue, tying results to the artificial-intelligence build-out. A pullback in AI infrastructure spending could slow growth. Third-quarter gross-margin guidance of 65% to 67% is below the latest 67.7%. Even if revenue growth falls to 20% in 2027 and 10% in 2028, it would compound at about 15% across those years if margins hold. However, a lower price-to-earnings multiple could materially increase the required earnings growth. The Motley Fool Stock Advisor team did not select TSMC among its 10 current recommendations. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends TSMC.