October's Space Stock Split: Viasat Rose as Launch Risks Deepened
Viasat was the only gainer in a difficult October for five space stocks. The divergence reflected contract execution, launch delays, regulatory risk and speculative deal talk rather than one common industry trend.
Space stocks did not move as a single trade in October. Viasat rose 11%, while SpaceX fell 5%, Rocket Lab lost 15%, Planet Labs declined 13% and AST SpaceMobile dropped 27%, according to Stocktwits' month-end comparison. The gap matters because each company faced a different mix of execution, financing and regulatory risk.
SpaceX paired rapid growth with a broader wireless ambition. The company reported third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161% from a year earlier, and net income of $4.4 billion. Its Super Intelligence business contributed $7.56 billion, while connectivity revenue rose 69% to $5.25 billion. Starlink ended September with 13.6 million consumer subscribers. SpaceX and Tesla also formed special committees to evaluate a possible combination, but no agreement had been reached.
The wireless plan became more concrete. SpaceX agreed to acquire Grain Management's nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio, subject to regulatory approval, and said the low-band licenses could support Starlink Mobile's satellite and terrestrial coverage. The FCC separately authorized a 15,000-satellite Gen2 Starlink system in January. Reports that SpaceX was discussing access to at least 80,000 U.S. cellular sites point to a possible terrestrial layer, but those talks do not establish a completed network agreement.
Rocket Lab's October was a study in schedule risk. The company moved Neutron's first launch to 2027 after engineers found air pockets in the carbon-composite layers of a first-stage tank dome. Rocket Lab said it corrected the manufacturing process and was building a replacement, while tank assembly, pressure testing and cryogenic testing still remained. The second stage and thrust module reached Wallops, Virginia, for ground work.
Electron continued to provide operating evidence while Neutron slipped. Rocket Lab completed Electron's 98th mission and its 19th launch of 2026 by deploying three HawkEye 360 satellites. The 100th Electron had been shipped but had not yet flown. Rocket Lab also presented a NASA-backed robotic arm that can move across a spacecraft and perform repairs, with an orbital demonstration planned for late 2027. Eight of 18 spacecraft were in production under a $515 million Space Development Agency program, and a separate $816 million award brought the two programs' potential value above $1.3 billion.
Viasat's 11% monthly gain rested on both operating developments and unconfirmed takeover speculation. Satellite consultant Tim Farrar suggested Amazon could be interested in Viasat and that AST SpaceMobile had explored a rival bid, but no transaction was announced. The verifiable progress was the launch of the Rocket Lab-built Maxwell spacecraft for a NASA communications demonstration. Viasat's two NASA awards total $81 million, and five months of on-orbit tests are scheduled through March 2027.
Viasat also joined Bridge Alliance to extend satellite coverage through mobile operators. A Terrestar memorandum contemplated links between its proposed CaStar network and Equatys, Viasat's venture with Space42. At the same time, Viasat asked the FCC to reject AST SpaceMobile's overseas spectrum request, citing interference and allocation concerns.
AST's commercial preparations continued despite the 27% share decline. The company was targeting initial intermittent service before year-end in the United States, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia. It reported more than 60 gateways deployed, installed or planned and partnerships with over 60 mobile operators serving more than 3 billion subscribers. Brazil granted spectrum approvals, and an FCC filing said operations with Smart Communications in the Philippines would begin imminently after local approvals. Piper Sandler nevertheless cut its rating to Neutral and reduced its price target to $54 from $98.
Planet's 13% decline also contrasted with technical progress. It launched a Google Project Suncatcher demonstration, Tanager-2 and 18 SuperDoves, then launched Pelican-12, its fifth Pelican and 25th satellite of 2026. Pelican-12 carries Nvidia Jetson hardware for onboard AI and an SES payload for faster relay testing. Planet also won an ESA assignment for Slovenia's 12-month disaster-detection pilot and a NASA evaluation task order covering more than 250,000 square kilometers of Tanager hyperspectral data.
The month's returns therefore say less about one space-sector cycle than about where investors assigned execution risk. Viasat benefited from near-term demonstrations and deal speculation, while Rocket Lab, AST and Planet still had to convert technical milestones into dependable commercial revenue.