Chip Target Changes Show AI Demand Is Not Lifting Every Stock
Susquehanna raised AMD and Qualcomm targets but cut Intel, Onsemi and other chip names. The split revisions show AI demand is rewarding revenue exposure while leaving execution and valuation risks intact.
Susquehanna expects modest upside to semiconductor earnings and guidance, but its latest price-target changes show that the AI cycle is not lifting every company equally. The firm raised targets for Advanced Micro Devices and Qualcomm while cutting targets for Intel, Onsemi, Coherent, Wolfspeed and Cirrus Logic.
AMD received the strongest positive revision. Susquehanna increased its target to $620 from $550 and kept a Positive rating. AMD had guided third-quarter revenue to about $13 billion, plus or minus $300 million, after second-quarter sales rose 50% to $11.5 billion. Data-center revenue more than doubled to $6.7 billion, making AMD one of the clearest beneficiaries if AI infrastructure spending remains strong.
Qualcomm's target rose to $185 from $160, although the rating remained Neutral. The company is trying to reduce its dependence on smartphones, and management expects non-handset revenue, including data centers, to grow more than 60% in fiscal 2027 after 24% growth in fiscal 2026. The target increase acknowledges that diversification, but the Neutral rating suggests the opportunity is not yet enough to erase execution risk.
The cuts were broad. Intel's target fell to $105 from $115, Onsemi's to $120 from $150, Wolfspeed's to $25 from $30 and Cirrus Logic's to $170 from $200. The firm also lowered targets for Coherent and maintained its Positive rating on both Coherent and Onsemi. A lower target with an unchanged rating usually reflects valuation or estimate changes rather than a broken long-term thesis.
The revisions matter because they separate direct AI revenue from looser exposure. AMD can point to current data-center sales. Coherent supplies optical components used in AI infrastructure, but investors must still assess margins and customer concentration. Onsemi's results depend more heavily on automotive and industrial demand. Intel combines improving demand with the cost and execution burden of its manufacturing strategy.
Price targets are opinions, not operating results. The next evidence comes from company reports. Intel was scheduled to report October 29, followed by AMD on November 3. Revenue guidance, gross margin and data-center growth will show whether Susquehanna's modest-upside view is too cautious or too optimistic.
The important conclusion is not that one analyst favors AMD over every peer. It is that the market is demanding proof at the company level. AI spending can support the semiconductor cycle while still producing different outcomes for designers, foundries, optical suppliers and power-chip makers.