Robinhood's Crypto Volume Rebound Faces a Revenue Test

Robinhood's crypto business entered the third quarter with a weak revenue comparison and a stronger trading signal. Cryptocurrency transaction revenue fell 38% from a year earlier to $100 million in the second quarter, but official August and September data show that customer activity accelerated before the October 27 earnings report.

The second-quarter decline was part of a longer slowdown. Crypto revenue fell from $268 million in the third quarter of 2025 to $221 million in the fourth quarter, $134 million in the first quarter of 2026 and $100 million in the second quarter, according to the source report and company filings. Crypto represented about 7.6% of Robinhood's $1.31 billion second-quarter revenue, a BTI calculation based on reported figures.

Other products reduced the company's dependence on crypto. Second-quarter options revenue reached $342 million, equities revenue was $129 million and event-contract revenue was $156 million. Total transaction-based revenue rose 44% from a year earlier to $776 million even as crypto revenue declined.

Trading activity improved during the third quarter. Robinhood reported August crypto notional volume of $17.5 billion, up 61% from July but still 38% below August 2025. That total included $7.4 billion on the Robinhood app and $10.1 billion on Bitstamp. The distinction matters because notional volume measures the dollar value of trades, not revenue, and the two platforms can have different customer mixes and economics.

Preliminary September data strengthened the sequential signal. From September 1 through September 24, crypto notional volume was about $17 billion, including roughly $7 billion on the Robinhood app and $10 billion on Bitstamp. Dividing that total by 24 calendar days gives an implied daily pace near $708 million, about 25% above Robinhood's reported August average of $565 million. This BTI calculation uses preliminary figures and is not a forecast of quarterly revenue.

Volume alone cannot settle the earnings question. Revenue also depends on transaction pricing, product mix, customer incentives and the share of activity occurring through each platform. The company also warns that preliminary monthly metrics can change when financial closing procedures are completed.

The source report cited Wall Street expectations for third-quarter revenue of about $1.41 billion and earnings of $0.54 a share. Those estimates are useful benchmarks, but crypto is now a smaller part of the company than during the 2025 surge. Customer deposits, options, equities, event contracts and net interest revenue may have more influence on the quarter's total result.

Robinhood has scheduled its third-quarter release for October 27 at 5 p.m. Eastern time. The most useful comparison will be between full-quarter crypto notional volume and crypto transaction revenue. A rebound in both would show that late-quarter activity carried economic value. Higher volume without a similar revenue response would point to weaker monetization or a less favorable trading mix.