Amgen's Growth Portfolio Must Outrun Biosimilar Pressure

Amgen raised its 2026 outlook as newer medicines grew rapidly, but falling Prolia and Xgeva sales show how quickly mature franchises can lose ground. over time.
Amgen's latest outlook shows a company growing through a portfolio transition rather than relying on one blockbuster.
The biotechnology group raised 2026 revenue guidance to $38.2 billion to $39.4 billion, for a midpoint of $38.8 billion. That is about 5% above 2025 revenue of $36.8 billion and higher than the company's previous range. Adjusted earnings guidance also increased to $22.30 to $23.50 per share.
Six growth medicines expanded by a combined 26% in the latest quarter and represented nearly 70% of product sales in Trefis's analysis. Repatha, a cholesterol treatment, grew 37%. That breadth is important because it reduces dependence on any single product and gives Amgen several routes to support revenue.
The decline side of the portfolio is equally clear. Combined Prolia and Xgeva sales fell 33% as biosimilar competition intensified. These medicines once formed a large, profitable franchise, so their erosion can pressure gross margin and selling efficiency even when newer drugs grow quickly.
Relative profitability remains a strength. Trefis compares Amgen's operating margin of about 30% with Johnson & Johnson's 26.8%, while recent quarterly revenue growth was 9.1% versus 8.1%. Amgen also traded near 25.8 times earnings, below the 30.2 multiple cited for Johnson & Johnson. These point-in-time multiples should not be treated as permanent, and differences in business mix limit a simple peer comparison.
The next stage depends on operating expense discipline and pipeline productivity. Growth drugs must cover not only lost mature-product revenue but also the research, launch and manufacturing costs needed to sustain the transition. Acquisitions add opportunity but also integration and development risk.
Amgen's raised guidance suggests the transition is working today. The most useful evidence in coming quarters will be volume growth for the six key medicines, the pace of biosimilar erosion and whether operating margin holds as the sales mix changes. A diversified growth portfolio can support a higher valuation, but only if its gains consistently exceed the decline of older products.
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